For this week's OSINT Drip, we dive into the connections between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical actors of the day, Reddit’s infamous Wall Street bets forum, and microprocessors. Also, have a look at the recently updated overview of network analysis. This is the most extensive write-up of their application we’ve seen, albeit there isn’t much out there, so the bar is low. We will add more content on this and advanced techniques shortly, so stay tuned.
As always, get in touch with thoughts, project ideas, and questions - Chandler
Stocks
Apple has been silently investing in the AI race, with enough capital to keep up with other tech giants like Microsoft and Google. The company has been hiring talented individuals for over 170 positions across various teams, specializing in multimodal generative modeling and visual generative modeling. Apple's strategy to enhance the capabilities of its devices through machine learning and artificial intelligence is seen through the development of the M4 chip and its Neural Engine, which enable more advanced and efficient features for users. The company's hiring trend in AI has gone somewhat unnoticed; it emerged as one of the top buyers of AI and machine learning companies since 2017, with 21 acquisitions, according to market research firm GlobalData.
Meta currently has 568 people working on Generative AI and graph neural networks. Arguably, it has one of the best datasets on the planet for training machines. They are set to release a new LLM later this month. This opens opportunities for market capture and product offerings within the AI space. For context, Microsoft has ~680, and Google has ~740, but Meta has far fewer employees—26,000 compared to 182,000 and 221,000, showing their priorities.
Sterling Infrastructure is well-positioned to benefit from increased spending on transportation, data centers, and residential housing projects. The company's diversification across these sectors and strong financial performance in sales and income growth make it an attractive small-cap growth play in the infrastructure space.
Astera Labs, Inc. is a semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and sells connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure. Its CEO, Jitendra Mohan, has more than ~35 patents, many of which focus on various aspects of low-latency signaling links and configurable communication systems - all vital aspects of IoT and edge computing systems that will be able to take advantage of the recent explosion of machine learning/AI technologies being developed.
Wall-Street Bets Forum
Over the last 30 days, the subreddit Wall-Street Bets forum has focused on inflation, Apple, Intel, Tesla, and Nvidia GPU inflation, China, Trump, Reddit’s stock, and AI Hype.
Reddit Wall Street Bets Key Topical Thematics
The sentiment in the forum shows a bias towards buy - 50% versus 21% of sell and 10% of holds across the mentions. This is not surprising, given how speculative its culture tends to be.
Reddit Wall Street Bets Mention Network - Buy (Teal), Sell (Red), Or Hold (brown)
The companies most mentioned on the subreddit are the usual players, such as NVDA and Apple. Still, based on our analytics, we suggest looking into Intel and Nikola. Both companies have had well-publicized struggles, but there are promising signals that might make certain types of investors reconsider.
Companies That Are Most Associated with “Buy” Ranked by Degree
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran
Over the weekend, Iranian missiles struck Israel as part of a significant aerial assault, signifying a dangerous escalation in the region that could lead to deadly clashes between the two countries. Iran stated that Saturday's strike was a response to the attack on its sovereign. In recent months, American warplanes have targeted Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in response to attacks on American forces in the Middle East. The U.S. also has several warships in the region capable of tracking and shooting down drones and missiles. Furthermore, days after Tehran warned it could close the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route and retaliate for an Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria, Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the strait on Saturday.
Israel is currently deliberating its potential responses to Iran's attack, which involved hundreds of drones and missiles, amidst growing calls for restraint to prevent a wider war. Iran held Israel responsible for the attack, equating it to a strike on its soil. According to Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, Iran launched approximately 300 explosive drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Still, with the support of US, British, Jordanian, and other allied forces, Israel successfully intercepted 99% of them.
While most Western countries criticized Iran’s retaliation, China and India called for “restraint” and “de-escalation.” Russia also expressed its concern at the attack. , Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei had tweeted: “Israel must be punished.” It would be pertinent to point out that while categorically sticking to its stand that it will retaliate, Tehran did lay a precondition that it would not go ahead with the attack if there was a ceasefire in Gaza. The US has also been calling for restraint and does not want the current Israel-Iran conflict to escalate.
Since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, there have been more than 150 attacks by Iran-backed militias on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. OSINT data suggests that Israel may choose to respond with limited, targeted strikes, with defense experts indicating that the most likely targets would be the bases from which Iran launched its attack. If Iran and Israel engage in further strikes against each other, it may be challenging to prevent other regional actors from becoming involved in a wider war. Netanyahu's supporters are also calling for a strong retaliation against Iran. Israeli security analysts suggest that Israel has a range of options for retaliation that would not overstretch its forces deployed in Gaza, on its northern border, and in the West Bank. In the past, Israel has targeted Iranian personnel and infrastructure related to Iran's nuclear program without claiming responsibility, and analysts suggest they could do so again, but more overtly.
To further understand global geopolitical tensions, we processed ~139k English articles from the top of their global publications that mentioned the United States, European Union, Iran, Palestine, Israel, Russia, and China. Not surprisingly, the time -series graph below shows much of the sentiment is negative.
The volume of News Articles about the United States, European Union, Iran, Palestine, Israel, Russia, and China over the last month is broken down by sentiment.
The most mentioned region is Ukraine, which is the result of recent aid packages, followed by Iran and Israel.
Most Mentioned Primary Locations
The network graph below connects governmental and international institutions mentioned in news articles. The size of each node represents its PageRank, indicating how influential each node is within the network. In our research, we are finding Page Rank immensely useful and predictive in modeling scenarios. Unsurprisingly, the US Senate and Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry are influential, but so are institutions, such as the IAEA and German government, that do not get as much press.
Network Graph of Key Institutions. Size and Color Represents Page Rank. Dark Red = higher Page Rank, White = Lower Page Rank
The German government and Iran’s foreign minister are also the most interconnected institutions in the data but the least shared on social media. It has recently attracted attention due to its involvement in two major geopolitical issues. Notably, its role in supplying weapons to Israel and its active participation in the EU and Ukraine-Russia conflict have brought it to the forefront of international affairs.
Network Graph of Key Institutions Size Represents Page Rank
Technology
Google Search Trends Over The Last Five Years
The Google Trends chart displays the search interest trends over time for various technology topics related to Semiconductors, Neural Networks, Systems on a Chip, and IoT. Semiconductors have maintained a relatively high and stable search interest over the five years. Meanwhile, Neural Networks and Systems on a Chip have fluctuated more, with peaks and troughs over time. Interestingly, searches for Github have increased to their highest levels, signaling that AI and software development hype might be real and embedded within organizations.
Some of the top investments in the last five years in the former have focused on machine learning, ASIC, RF technologies, audio-visual processing, and Blockchain/IoT/Finance. Machine learning has the most investments, followed by ASIC and logistics.
Clusters That Have Received the Most Amounts of Investments
Clusters That Have Received the Most Number of Investments
Economics
Markets reacted to the geopolitical tensions by fleeing to traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold. At the same time, equities and oil were volatile amid uncertainty over the potential economic impacts. The U.S. dollar held broadly steady, trading near a 34-year high against the Japanese yen at around 153.27 yen per dollar.
PAXG and Gold USD Google Search Interest
Gold prices spiked, with the Paxos Gold (PAXG) token surging as high as $2,923 on Saturday, trading at over 20% premium to the spot gold price of $2,342.90 per ounce on Friday. This suggests increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions. However, the surge in PAXG did not spill over into other gold-backed tokens like XAUT, indicating the premium was specific to PAXG.
Bitcoin & Ethereum Google Search Interest & USD Prices
Bitcoin & Ethereum USD Prices
Bitcoin (BTC) traded with a near-perfect negative correlation to PAXG over the last day, suggesting weak demand for BTC as a geopolitical hedge compared to gold. U.S. 10-year Treasury futures edged slightly lower, with an implied yield of around 4.53%.1In stock markets, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose around 0.3% in early Asia trade, partially recovering from heavy losses on Friday. Oil prices edged broadly lower in volatile trading after initially spiking on the Middle East tensions.
US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears
Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures. The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance. This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.
European Central Bank holds interest rates at 4%
On Thursday, the European Central Bank held interest rates at all-time highs but signaled it was considering a cut at its next meeting in June. In a shift from previous language, the ECB said it "would be appropriate" to cut rates if underlying price pressures, its updated forecasts, and the impact of previous rate rises increased its confidence that inflation was closing in on its 2 percent target Eurozone inflation has fallen from a 2022 peak of 10.6 percent to 2.4 percent in March - tantalizingly close to the bank's target.
EuroArea Inflation Levels
According to a preliminary estimate, the consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area fell to 2.4% year-on-year in March 2024, matching November's 28-month low. This figure missed market expectations of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also decreased to 2.9%, its lowest level since February 2022. This number was below the forecasted 3.0% rate. Energy prices saw a decline of 1.8% compared to a 3.7% decrease in February. The pace of price increases also slowed down for food, alcohol & tobacco (2.7% vs 3.9%), and non-energy industrial goods (1.1% vs 1.6%). However, services inflation remained steady at 4.0%. In terms of monthly changes, consumer prices increased by 0.8% in March, following a 0.6% rise in February.
That is all for this week’s OSINT Drip. Feel free to reach out with questions or thoughts - Chandler.